Today column is one of either hopeful optimist or resign to defeat. So you would have to take your pick! A no time in History have we seen the press and pollsters so work together to make a candidate win a election as we see in the 2008. Not since the Dewey-Truman run have we see Fluxuating polls and the Press and some blogs out to get a vice Prudential candidate as we have now.
As a historian, I study history trying to come up with trends in history. The Truman Dewey contest in 1948 was one we all can and should remember if you study your history right. Thomas Dewey the darling of the Republicans and the sitting President of the United were fighting tooth and nail for the office.
The pollsters and Press at this time had Dewey willing the election and the famous headline in the Chicago tribune read
“The Dewey Defeats Truman”. The Tribune was not the only paper to make the mistake. The Daily Journal of Commerce had eight articles in its Nov. 3 edition about what could be expected of President Dewey.
The paper's five column headline read, "Dewey Victory Seen as Mandate to Open New Era of Government-Business Harmony, Public Confidence.
"The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things."However Truman was undaunted and believed that with a chance he would win the election.
In one poll of political journalists by Newsweek October 1, 1948 issue, Newsweek they asked “which candidate they thought would win. Appearing in the stated the results: all 50 believed Dewey would win.”
Rhodes Cook is a veteran Washington political analyst for the Wall Street Journal writes:
"There is the sense that the Illinois senator may be putting the cart before the horse, a Dewey-like affliction of presumptive victory. And there are few things more off-putting to voters than having their ballots taken for granted. To be sure, Mr. Obama has to transform himself virtually overnight from being largely unknown to a candidate widely recognized to have the credentials to be president – a difficult feat for anyone to execute.
And there are admittedly clear differences between the 2008 campaign and the Dewey-Truman contest of 1948. Mr. Dewey was already a known commodity back then, having lost the 1944 election to Franklin Roosevelt. The Republican’s dapper presence and cool public demeanor made him no favorite of the press......
Yet there are also some critical similarities between the two elections. Just as the Democrats now, the Republicans in 1948 were bullish about their chances of capturing the White House after winning control of both houses of Congress two years earlier. As in the present, the campaign of 1948 was widely viewed as a “change” election, with a significant gap in ages between the two major-party nominees. Mr. Dewey, at 46 years old (the same age as Sen. Obama, who turns 47 on Monday), represented a new generation of leaders ready to move to the fore after World War II. Mr. Truman was nearly 20 years his senior, old enough to have served with distinction in World War I as a field artillery captain"
John McCain could be the Republicans Truman? Yet we going to see changes no matter what. certainly the big lie that Obama is that "Change" is something we will have to face. He is the rock star, a Messiah, Either way we will be left holding the bag at the end of the election. This is the first time in my memory we will see a candidate win a election by proposing tax hikes as McGovern did. I will discuss what happens after this election. next week. But a hint to that article is that even if Obama wins this election, the Liberal socialist Democrats lose.
I realized I jumping from either Obama wins or McCain wins, however, I feel we are looking at a disaster either way.
2012 is coming and I do not believe Obama is going to be President. I could be wrong and I often am. I still believe that a defeat of Obama could mean a win by Hillary in 2012. I still believe McCain will win, by a slime 2000 and 2004 margin.
Could history repeating itself? We never know. Real Change is coming!
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